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Winter 2009/10 issue

 

Market Meltdown: Trillion-Dollar Advertorial for New Investment Approaches (parts 1 and 2)
Dr. Matthew J. Kiernan - CEO, Innovest Strategic Value Advisors

One can take no satisfaction from the current meltdown in the global capital markets. However, if there is any silver lining within that massive financial cloud, it is the fact that the entire episode should serve as a wake-up call for international investors. More precisely, it is also a trillion-dollar advertorial for the broader analytical power, perspective and insights, and potential added value of "sustainability-enhanced" investment analysis and strategies. (To be clear, I define "sustainability-enhanced" simply as "including a sophisticated analysis of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risk and opportunity factors in one's investment analysis of companies"). If ever there were a "teaching moment" during which Wall Street's "Masters of the Universe" might finally be open to new analytical and investment approaches, it is now.

In that sense, the timing of my new book, Investing in a Sustainable World: Why Green is the New Color of Money on Wall Street, may be propitious. In addition to the arrival in the White House of President Obama and his "Green Dream Team" [*1], we have new House Energy and Commerce chair Henry Waxman, a passionate advocate for action on environmental issues, notably including climate change. Throw in Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, now calling publicly for a carbon tax, and the geopolitical planets are coming into perfect alignment.

The first half of this article recapitulates some central arguments from my book; the latter half provides a brief explanation of the analytical approach taken at my firm - Innovest Strategic Value Advisors.

The sub-prime debacle and its collateral damage have cruelly exposed the profound limitations and inadequacies of traditional investment analysis and risk management. If anything remained of the illusion of Wall Street omniscience before the current crisis, certainly none does now. The fact that it was sustainability analysts who were the first to detect and draw clients' attention to the sub-prime iceberg back in October 2006 only reinforces the credibility of the entire analytical paradigm, with its long-term time horizon and more holistic, 360 degree risk radar. [**2]

While temporarily obscured by the market meltdown, the world of global investment is now in the early stages of the most profound transformation in decades. The "Sustainable Investment Revolution" is driving a worldwide industrial restructuring, radically changing the very basis of competitive advantage for companies and investors. Fortunately, institutional asset owners and investment managers of literally trillions of dollars are slowly awakening to both the risks and the opportunities posed by ESG. The bad news is that they are not doing so rapidly enough. In the U.S., we have much to learn from our peers in continental Europe and the U.K. in this regard.

This new investment paradigm is driven by powerful transformational factors:

  • Accelerating natural resource degradation, scarcity and constraints, driven to a significant extent by the explosive pace of industrial development, population growth, and urbanization, especially in emerging market economies;
  • Dramatically increased levels of public and consumer concern and expectations for companies' ESG performance, turbocharged by unprecedented levels of information transparency with which to assess it;
  • Tightening national, regional, and global regulatory requirements for stronger disclosure and company performance on "non-traditional" business and investment risks, including ESG ones;
  • The expansion and intensification of both industrial competition and institutional investment into emerging markets, where ESG risks tend to be most acute;
  • The ongoing revolution in information and communications technologies (the Internet, YouTube, Facebook, webcasts, bloggers, et al.), which has accelerated the emergence of a stakeholder-driven competitive environment with unprecedented transparency and, therefore, business risk;
  • Growing pressures from international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), armed with new financial and technical resources, credibility, access to company information, and global communications capabilities with which to disseminate their analysis and viewpoints;
  • A substantial reinterpretation and broadening of the purview of legitimate fiduciary responsibility to include companies' performance on ESG matters; and
  • An institutional investor base that is increasingly sensitized to ESG issues, newly equipped with better information, and willing and able to act on its concerns.

Taken together, these global megatrends promise to make sustainable investment a dominant investment paradigm for decades to come. However, mainstream investors in the U.S. have been slow to adapt, imprisoned by a series of wrong-headed but widely shared misconceptions:
  1. Addressing sustainability factors is irrelevant or even injurious to risk-adjusted financial returns.
  2. It is very likely a breach of fiduciary duty to incorporate sustainability factors into investment strategy.
  3. There is no academically credible evidence to support the sustainable investment thesis.
  4. Sustainability and other "extra-financial" analyses are less rigorous and more arbitrary than traditional investment analysis.
  5. All SRI/sustainability research and investment approaches are essentially the same, and are unhelpful at best and financially harmful most of the time.
  6. Unlike any other single set of investment factors, sustainability factors have to add value all of the time; otherwise they clearly must be intellectually bankrupt, worthless, or even harmful.

Each one of these investment myths has now been convincingly demolished, and still the misconceptions persist. This disjunction between current investment thinking and the investment imperatives of the 21st century cannot last.

In my new book, Investing in a Sustainable World I attempt to explain the reasons for the mainstream's resistance to sustainability approaches.

What could possibly explain this parlous state of affairs? In a nutshell, the root cause can be found in the two most abundant and, apparently, infinitely renewable resources that we seem to possess as a species: personal intellectual inertia, and collective organizational inertia. To my mind, any other explanations are simply disingenuous. Worse, this inertia has been exacerbated by three additional injurious trends:
  • The distressing tendency of most investment professionals to treat all Environmental and Social (ES) investment strategies as one homogeneous, undifferentiated - and generally unhelpful - mass.
  • The "silent conspiracy of passive resistance" by most pension fund consultants, key gatekeepers who have until quite recently been virtually unanimous in their ignorance, indifference or even hostility towards ES factors. Unfortunately, few if any of sustainability investing's many critics have taken the trouble to test the veracity of their assertions, either through their own original research or by consulting the growing financial literature and empirical performance evidence in this area.
  • The extraordinary deference of pension fund trustees and fiduciaries themselves, who tend to be unduly intimidated by their professional advisors, and sometimes, forget that the advisors and money managers work for them and not the other way around. In essence, the investment manager and financial advisor tail has been wagging the fiduciary dog. This has to stop.

The Sustainable Investment Thesis

The sustainable investment hypothesis is born directly out of the inadequacy of traditional, accounting-based financial analysis to cope with the radically changed competitive and investment environment of the 21st century, where the ES factors cited above (and other "non-traditional" ones like them) have assumed unprecedented competitive significance. The basic logic of the sustainable investment thesis is as follows:
  • Traditional financial analysis cannot possibly provide a complete picture of companies' true competitive risks, value potential, and future performance. Typically, at least 80 percent of a company's value is now driven by "intangibles," which cannot be adequately captured in financial statements.
  • "Management quality" is arguably the #1 intangible - the factor most critical to companies' competitiveness, profitability, and - ultimately - their share price performance. Assessing it accurately is, therefore, the "Holy Grail" of 21st century investing.
  • ES issues are, and will remain among the toughest, most complex management challenges of the next 20 years. They are, therefore, a potent, forward-looking litmus test for a company's management quality and execution capabilities overall.
  • Companies with superior positioning and performance on ES factors tend to be: More forward-looking and strategic; More agile and adaptable; Better managed companies in general; and therefore: Likely to be financial out-performers as well.
  • ES factors will become even more important to companies' - and investors' - competitive and financial success over the next 3-5 years.
  • Despite this, they are currently grossly under-recognized and under-researched by mainstream investors. Those prepared to do the necessary research and analysis on sustainability factors, therefore, will be rewarded with a significant information advantage.
  • The most compelling investment solutions will be those that combine institutional - quality ES research with best-in-class fundamental and quantitative research, portfolio construction, and asset management capabilities. ES analysis should not be regarded as a substitute for traditional investment analysis, but rather as a powerful enhancement to it.

Innovest's "Iceberg Balance Sheet" and the "4 Pillars" of Corporate Sustainability

The implementation approach we have adopted at Innovest Strategic Value Advisors has its intellectual roots in the concept of the "iceberg balance sheet". This approach focuses priority attention where it really belongs: on those investment risks and value drivers that lie hidden, impervious to traditional financial analysis. Increasingly, it is this larger portion of the "corporate value iceberg" below the surface that contains the primary drivers of the company's future risks, unique comparative advantages, and value-creation capabilities. At Innovest, the four key pillars of sustainability analysis are the following: Environment; Human Capital; Stakeholder Capital; and Strategic Governance.

Please see Graph 1 below: The 'Iceberg Balance Sheet'

The "Environment" category is the most self-explanatory of the 4 Pillars. By minimizing their adverse impacts on the natural environment, companies can achieve many of the competitive advantages referenced earlier in this article: a "social license to do business," improved brand value and differentiation, cost efficiencies, the ability to attract top talent, and others.

In our typology, the category of "Human Capital" includes companies' ability to identify, recruit, train, motivate, and retain the best people, their ability to build and disseminate new knowledge throughout the company, and their innovation capacity, among other attributes.

"Stakeholder Capital" addresses companies' ability to interact with their myriads of important stakeholders outside the companies, including local communities, regulators, suppliers, customers, alliance partners, and even competitors.

"Strategic Governance" may be the least intuitive of the 4 Pillars. Here we refer to companies' ability to govern themselves strategically on sustainability issues. In other words, it addresses companies' capacity to scan the competitive horizon in order to identify and manage both current and potential sustainability issues, risks, and opportunities. In this sense, it is a specific and esoteric (and rarely-practiced) sub-set of the more familiar category of "corporate governance." Usually, but not always, Strategic Governance is the province of the company's senior executive team and its board of directors.

The Innovest approach has a number of key and defining characteristics:
  • It is secular, not values-driven. That is, it is focused primarily on those sustainability factors judged to have the greatest probable impact on companies' competitiveness and risk-adjusted financial performance.
  • Individual company assessments are relative to industry peers, and invariably follow an in-depth analysis of each sector's competitive dynamics as viewed through the sustainability "prism."
  • The weights given to each of the four sustainability "pillars" (and, indeed, individual sub-factors) differ, by industry, geography, and time, reflecting the very different impacts that different sustainability factors have in different industry sectors - and countries.
  • Those weights are informed (but not strictly determined) by attribution analysis of their actual contribution to companies' share price and other financial performance indicators over the previous five plus years.
  • Wherever possible, judgments about companies are taken only after live, real-time interviews with senior company officials, preferably from a variety of functional backgrounds (questionnaires are not utilized).
  • The Innovest analysts conducting the interviews have experience in the industry sector concerned, the finance and investment industry, or both.

As I said earlier, the election of Barack Obama presages a seismic shift in U.S. - and therefore the world's environmental and energy policy, moving sustainability issues into much greater prominence in the formerly sustainability-averse country. While the primary focus of his "Green New Deal" will be public sector regulation, tax incentives, and spending, Mr. Obama should not overlook the enormous leverage and potential of the private capital markets to complement and accelerate his new green agenda.

As for the markets themselves, institutional investors, unite! You have nothing to lose but your intellectual chains - and sub-par financial performance.

Article by Dr. Kiernan is Founder and Chief Executive of Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Inc., the #1 ranked research and advisory firm in the world in the sustainable investment field. His new book, Investing in a Sustainable World was published in early 2009 by the American Management Association and McGraw-Hill.

For more information on Innovest or to read the first chapter of the book, please visit http://www.innovestgroup.com

ARTICLE NOTES:

* NOTE 1 - That team is led by Secretary of Energy Dr. Steven Chu (Nobel Prize-winning physicist and former head of the Lawrence Berkeley Energy Labs), EPA head Lisa Jackson (former senior environmental official in the State of New Jersey) "energy czarina" Carol Browner (former EPA Administrator and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, a water expert who is on the public record as having strong concerns about the environmental impacts of resource extraction).


** NOTE 2 - In October 2006, months before anyone on Wall Street, Innovest Strategic Value Advisors began alerting its clients to the dangers of the sub-prime time bomb. This was a direct result of using the unorthodox perspective of social and environmental risk, not subjects of particular historic interest to Wall Street.

Graph 1: The "Iceberg Balance Sheet"

FINANCIAL CAPITAL

Stakeholder Capital
Regulators and policymakers
Local communities/NGO's
Customer relationships
Alliance partners

Strategic Governance
Strategic scanning capability
Agility/adaptation
Performance indicators/monitoring
Traditional governance concerns
International "best practice"

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

Human Capital
Labor relations
Recruitment/retention strategies
Employee motivation
Innovation capacity
Knowledge development & dissemination
Health & safety
Progressive workplace practices

Environment
Brand Equity
Cost/risk reduction
Market share growth
Process efficiencies
Customer loyalty
Innovation effect Subscribe to Green Money


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